Pfizer won't save us the way things are going.


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As welcome as the Pfizer news is, it doesn't blunt the horror of watching this storm develop in slow motion. OMG this is ugly.

Cases are still rising exponentially. Expect that to mostly continue because most states are doing little to nothing to stop it.

Unlike previous waves, this one is national. Every region in the country is rising exponentially, albeit from very different starting levels. All are doubling in a period ranging from 2 1/2 to 4 weeks. All should get worse as the effects of cooler weather start to come in, and then the holiday superspreaders ride that wave.

Even the northeast - where the perception is that they're doing great while the midwest is on fire - is on the same track just five weeks behind. Every region is heading for disaster.

Total hospitalizations are now passing the 2nd wave peak. (The 1st wave peak is badly understated due to incomplete reporting at the time.) This will rise for at least 10-14 days after the cases stop rising, and there's no hint that's slowing down.

Deaths are now entering the curve, with 3-4 weeks of increases baked in from current conditions. Expect us to blow past 1500 deaths/day, and an average of 2,000 is on our current path. 60,000 deaths/month, and with cold and holidays it could go higher.

The most frustrating thing is SMALL CHANGES can stop it. We need to take current behaviors where 100 infected people infect 120 more, and just drop it to 90. That's all, cut it by a quarter and the curve breaks. Wear masks in public indoors.

Skip the gym. Do church online. Do carry out, skip the bars. Form a MUTUAL bubble with a few friends. (If your bubble isn't identical to theirs, you're not in a bubble, you're in a network.)

It is so frustrating to watch us casually taking actions that will kill an extra 100,000 people this winter. And it's so easy to prevent.


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