Election down to the wire, unexpected and we're not even done yet!


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Wow, this election is absurdly close. The early evidence of a massive systemic polling error yesterday really spooked me, but things are looking more solid now. It's increasingly looking like literally the narrowest possible win for Biden. If he picks up NV and AZ, which seems likely, and loses everywhere else, which seems likely except for PA, he's at 270 electoral votes, one vote over the threshold to win. Above is my map of that happening. Based on reporting times for AZ and NV, we should know by tomorrow if we're at 270+, and PA will take a couple more days.

However, we're not done yet. Trump is claiming victory in states where he's behind in a series of bizarre tweets designed to cast doubt about the electoral process. This is possibly a prelude to a larger power struggle. He may not go quietly, and we might have to push him out.

There's also the "technicality" of the electoral college, which could flip the election if any one of Biden's 270 electors decides to flip their vote.

And even if we get through all that, we still live in an America where almost half of voters went for Trump even after getting four years of the real thing (complete with 230,000+ unnecessary deaths and almost $6 trillion spent to fix a problem largely of his own making) as opposed to the reality-show mirage.

America's got a lot of healing to do. We've got dysfunctional institutions, no clear vision, and rancorous cultural conflicts. But it could be worse. We're staring over the edge of the abyss, but at least we aren't actively falling over it. That is enough to be hopeful and to start thinking about building a more positive future.


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