A couple of (Covid) ATH's we won't be rejoicing over.


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Eight days ago we hit 100k new cases for the first time. Today, 150k.

Cases are up 2.5x in the last month. It's not driven by testing, our test % positive has gone from under 5% to 9.5% in that time; the true rise in infections is even faster than our case count.

Hospitalizations are up about 70% from a month ago, to an all-time high. (They lag behind cases, so another two weeks of sharp increases is already baked in.)

Deaths are starting to rise now, despite lagging cases by 22 days. They're up about 50%, most of that in the last two weeks. Another month of increases are already baked in, we'll almost certainly hit 2,000 deaths/day average by the end of November, and it will keep rising.

I've run out of words to say how serious this is. Fortunately, it seems to be finally getting some coverage and leaders are belatedly starting to do things (Chicago!), so maybe we can cap it at 3,000 deaths/day in mid December...but we haven't done nearly enough to change the trend.


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