After posting about sharply rising #COVID19 cases Friday, there were multiple replies to the effect of "but deaths aren't going up". As should be obvious to most at this point, (reported) deaths lag (reported) cases. This thread investigates. 1/8https://t.co/5PStGbR5PJ— Trevor Bedford (@trvrb) November 11, 2020
Oh my, I was too optimistic in my predictions. Turns out we're going to be at 2000 deaths/day before November ends.
I hadn't appreciated how much our death reporting lags. I knew deaths average about 16 days after symptom onset, but didn't realize death reporting averages 22 days AFTER TEST RESULTS.
Today's test numbers essentially lock in what our death totals will be 3 weeks from now. And we're on track for 2300/day in early December...roughly where we were at the worst of the initial peak. If nothing changes by 12/10, we'll have 5,000/day by the end of the year.
Maybe news coverage will cause behavior changes, but we're about to see the effects of cold weather, followed quickly by the impact of Thanksgiving. Not clear at all what the net impact will be.