Look at the future of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies from Grayscale’s latest positions!


Grayscale released its latest trust holding report on Thursday, January 7, as shown in the figure above. Grayscale's total holdings of cryptocurrencies have reached 27.4 billion U.S. dollars. If you don't know the previous grayscale data, you may not feel much about this data. But the Blues tells you that this data is amazing. On December 31, the last day of last year, Grayscale's total holdings were US$20.2 billion, just over US$20 billion. And 7 days later, Grayscale's total holdings increased by US$7.2 billion, an average increase of more than US$1 billion per day. What an amazing data! Although most of Grayscale's new positions may be hosted by customers rather than directly purchased from the market by Grayscale, most of the cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin hosted by customers are purchased from the market. If you didn’t understand the recent soaring prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum, now look at the grayscale data if you understand it? The capital invested in cryptocurrency by Grayscale is increasing rapidly. In fact, many other US institutions are the same. A large amount of US capital is still entering the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets.

Looking specifically at the currencies of Grayscale's holdings, Grayscale Bitcoin currently has a total scale of about 23 billion U.S. dollars, Ethereum is about 3.58 billion U.S. dollars, and other currencies are very limited. Litecoin LTC is roughly 200 million U.S. dollars, while BCH is roughly not. At 110 million U.S. dollars, the remaining positions in other currencies are very limited (a few million to tens of millions of U.S. dollars), almost negligible. In fact, the truth of the current structural bull market can be seen from the distribution of gray positions. Grayscale gets money continuously, and the money is basically invested in the two currencies of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and there are a few Masukuras occasionally. Gray-scale positions are also indicative for most U.S. financial institutions. Although the distribution of positions of each institution is not the same, there is a high probability that their positions are also mainly Bitcoin and Ethereum at the moment, and hope to expand to the entire currency circle at once. , There is no such possibility at present.

Therefore, the blues has always opposed a universal idea, which is the so-called "round rise". Every day we see some currencies in the currency circle skyrocketing, mainly Defi hot coins, but if you look closely, you will find a truth. That is basically no continuity. It has skyrocketed for two days, and then oscillated for ten days and eight days. If it encounters a Bitcoin retracement, it will fall faster than anyone else. why? Because these currencies are just a small number of big players in the currency circle "making shocks", and they lack continuous capital inflows. Everyday the blues sees the so-called "other mainstream currency market" and "altcoin market coming?", but the cruel reality is that there is no new market at all in the short term. Of course, the current total increase of a few currencies has left Bitcoin, etc. Not far, it seems to have been following the rise, but the next stage is likely to fall behind. Most of them will return to the prototype in the big correction of Bitcoin. A few can maintain a higher price. Due to the lack of new capital inflows, they will follow Bitcoin and Ether. It will be difficult for the square to continue to increase. Their real market is only possible at the oxtail stage. Of course, the blues do not rule out that a few currencies will rise to the sky in the short term due to the small demand for funds, but they will only be individual cases and not the whole.

Another highlight is that Grayscale's Bitcoin holdings are about 6.5:1 compared to Ethereum holdings. That is, Grayscale holds approximately 15% of the amount of Ethereum held by Bitcoin. This actually reveals the American finance. Institutions’ current awareness of the two leading currencies-Bitcoin’s financial properties are far stronger than Ethereum. This has led to this bull market, Bitcoin will always be the first in total market value, and the blues do not believe in Jiang Zhuoer’s current round. The market value of Ethereum will surpass Bitcoin in the bull market. Since US financial institutions are the protagonist of this bull market, the strong financial currency Bitcoin will always be the leader. Of course, because the price of Bitcoin is already high in the bull market, Ethereum’s The increase may exceed Bitcoin, thereby reducing the distribution ratio of the two to a certain extent. This is possible, but it is impossible to exceed it. Have you ever seen the total market value of an industrial ecology exceed the total value of the underlying currency?

The continuous surge of Bitcoin has caused many mainstream financial media that were dismissive of it to start paying attention to Bitcoin, but many still hold the stale opinion that once the US or other countries ban the circulation of Bitcoin, Bitcoin will be ruined. The point of view is the most typical. This actually refers to the United States. In fact, China now prohibits the circulation of Bitcoin except for not banning the holders of Bitcoin. Has it affected the rise of Bitcoin? If the United States banned it, the price of Bitcoin would definitely fall sharply, but it would not be possible to kill Bitcoin. Its roots exist in the shadow of the struggle between different economies. So the essence of the question is, will the United States ban the circulation of Bitcoin?

Basically, we can judge that the possibility of banning Bitcoin circulation in the United States in the future is extremely low. The main reasons are as follows:

  1. The current mainstream thinking in the United States has changed to use Bitcoin instead of banning it. It is recognized that Bitcoin may be a good medicine to compensate for the loosening of the hegemony of the US dollar. The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) allowed the National Bank of the United States and the Federal Reserve Bank to use public blockchains and stablecoins for settlement, which is the best proof. In order to save the US economy and finance, the liquidity of the US dollar has to be superfluous, which has shaken some of the foundation of the US dollar. Many countries are now unwilling to hold too many US dollars, and trade has begun to partially avoid the US dollar. Even a poor country like Myanmar is now same. Now that US financial institutions are aggressively entering the Bitcoin market, the possibility of controlling Bitcoin is extremely high. As a nominally decentralized currency, the possibility and feasibility of Bitcoin being accepted by small and medium-sized countries in the world is extremely high. If American capital controls With Bitcoin, then Bitcoin completely passes through the USD-Bitcoin transaction pair, and still plays the role of USD dominating the global reserve currency of small and medium-sized countries. It may lose part of the USD tax, but it is better than losing everything.
  2. The entry of a large number of American financial capital and chaebols into the Bitcoin market itself constitutes an increasing obstacle to the possible prohibition of Bitcoin circulation in the United States in the future. The United States is essentially a country of chaebols and financial oligarchs, and "Wall Street America" ​​is what main body. If Bitcoin is to be banned, it must be initiated by some chaebols, but they will be strongly attacked by another group of chaebols.
  3. It is a very distant future for Bitcoin to threaten the status of the US dollar. The current market value of Bitcoin is 700 billion U.S. dollars. When it catches up with the gold market value, which is the blues’ ideal target price of 500,000 U.S. dollars per coin, the total market value is only 20 trillion U.S. dollars. The total financial assets of the United States in 2020 will be about 209.5 Trillions of dollars. When Bitcoin reaches a market value of 20 trillion US dollars, the total financial assets of the United States will likely reach 300 trillion US dollars. That is to say, when Bitcoin really becomes digital gold, it accounts for the proportion of total US financial assets. Probably will not exceed 7%, and the proportion of global financial assets will not exceed 3%. What is the threat? Unreasonable worry!

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