The economy looks good from the outside but may have rotten internals.

  1. Global PMI is in contraction, which means that manufacturing is in decline. If the economy was booming, people would have been consuming more and manufacturing would have been on the rise.
  2. All of this data is statistical i.e. they ask people if they’re participating in the economy. There can always be fake statistical records or fake reporting of statistics.
  3. Revenue losses all over the world are suggesting that growth is slowing down and is on track for recession.
  4. Even if his statistics are accurate, this is the worst jobs growth in years.
  5. Logistics companies are also reporting a growth slowdown.

Most probably, they are misreporting all statistics, including GDP. A similar case was observed in India where GDP was reported around double that of original value by making the formula to calculate GDP more sensitive to pricing as argued by former chief economic advisor of the Indian Government, Arvind Subramanian (who has just left) in his recent research paper.

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