Just two months ago analysts had a fair value between $44 - $52 / share. Now, aftermarket concerns and stalls in production, we have seen the fair value drop to $34.18 - $45.24 with an estimated value at $39.71 / share at the time of writing this piece. Currently, $NIO closed on April 8th, 2021 at $38.85 a share. When comparing NIO to Tesla, this will be a multi-hundred dollar stock with a couple hundred billion dollar market cap, but in the shorter term, an investor can make at least %12 if they buy in at $39 or less and sell at $44. A reasonable price target considering $44/45 seems to be the sweet spot analysts see for the moment. Now let us get into some comparisons:
Tesla Q4 2020 (Years as a company 17- Founded July 1st, 2003):
Total production: 179,757
Total deliveries: 180,667
NIO Q4 2020 (Years as a company 7 - Founded November 2014):
Total production: Earnings report does not explicitly say
Total deliveries: 17,353
Total production: 100,000 reported by InsideEvs on April 7th. This being "1,046 days, since the first NIO ES8 rolled off the line on May 27, 2018. Really not bad for a startup, that in its journey went through a cash crisis and general COVID-19 situation"
Q3 2020 ER does report of increased vehicle margin from "the decrease in the purchase price of certain materials and lower unit manufacturing cost attributed from increased production volume of the ES6 and ES8 in the third quarter of 2020)"
Of course other factors at play, but Total revenues rose 46.7% from the third quarter of 2020 to the 4th quarter 2020. NIO also saw a 44.7% increase in vehicle sales. However, with NIOs recent semiconductor shortage we have seen the stocks price slip and likely to see NIO fall further during their next earnings report.
""The overall supply constraint of semiconductors has impacted the Company’s production volume in March 2021. The Company expects to deliver approximately 19,500 vehicles in the first quarter of 2021, adjusted from previously released outlook of 20,000 to 20,500 vehicles.""
When looking at NIO and their lifespan is only %42 that of Tesla... 7 years vs 17 and it took till 2008 for Tesla to release the Roadster. Then, 4 more years after a proof of concept to produce the model s in June on 2012. NIO launched their ES8 3 years after launch in December 2017 and began deliveries in June of 2018.
Currently, at this moment Tesla has a market cap of $656B, while NIO has a market cap of $63.41B. To match Teslas market cap that's a multiple of 10. It's not unreasonable to see NIO in the upcoming years fo from $38.70 to $400. Note this will NOT happen overnight, but with time and buying the dips. A long-term investor can make a good return.