A man enters a casino in Las Vegas. He had $10,000 when he first entered. However he plays all his money and ends up with only $4. He needs at least $10 for transportation to get back home.
The man cannot leave the casino until he earns $6. The man decides to play roulette to reach his goal of $10. If he loses his last $4, a harsh walk under the storm and cold wind awaits. He stands in front of the roulette table. What strategy must the man use?
Sometimes gambling is best not done. However when it comes to gambling within the boundary of law, it is best to strategize a play that assures the biggest chance of winning. Statistically, people say the best strategy is to make ‘Bold Plays’. Another good point is to limit the number of rounds you play to minimum. Then what is the logic behind these words?
Let’s take a look at what is the best way to make $4 into $10 for the poor man standing in front of the roulette table. First he must make a bet in one color of the roulette wheel. The betting amount must be the smaller one between ‘his current bankroll’ and ‘the amount left to reach $10’. This may result in a catastrophic ending for the man when in a gambling aspect. However this is the best chance of winning in a mathematical approach.
The man currently has $4 and needs $10. He need $6 more. $4 is smaller than $6 thus the man decides to bet all $4 in red.
Of course, if the ball lands in black, he will lost all $4 and walk all the way home from the casino. In the other hand, if the ball lands in red, he doubles his bank roll.
Luckily the ball bounces off the wall and lands in red! The man now has $8. Now he has $2 more to go in order for a comfortable ride home. Now all he needs to do is bet $2.
If luck is on his side, his bankroll will increase into $10. If he loses this round, it’s still okay because he has $6 left. Now he has $4 left so he must make a bet with $4. All the man needs to do is bet until he makes $10 or ends up losing all his money.
However there is one more thing to consider. Roulette actually has the number 0 and in cases 00 as a number. 0 and 00 are called ‘casino numbers’. If the ball lands in 0 or 00, all players lose other than those who has bet on the casino numbers. If no one has bet on 0 or 00, the dealer takes all the bets. In the case of American Roulette, the actual chance of getting the color right is 18/38 or 9/19 instead of 1/2. The chance of getting a number right is actually 1/38 instead of 1/36. The structure is actually unfair for the players.
Also, it is best to minimize the number of bets. This world is ruled by the law of large numbers. The law of large numbers, in probability and statistics, states that as a sample size grows, its mean gets closer to the average of the whole population. Thus if infinite bets are made on the same option, the number of wins will actually end up as the chance of that bet.
In 1713, Swiss mathematician Jakob Bernoulli proved this theorem in his book, Ars Conjectandi. His theory was shown with a coin toss. He said “the difference between 1/2 and the number a coin flip results in either heads or tails divided by the total number of flips get closer to 0 as the number of coin tosses increases”.
This is also the case in casino games. If the number of bets increase, the final result of playing in the casino will get closer to the chance of winning each time. Thus players have a higher chance of losing as the number of bets increase. Thus it is best to make ‘Bold Bets’.
To conclude, making bold bets give players the best chance to not lose money to players. However there is always a big chance to lose as well so the best word will be to not play unless you are okay without the bet you are about to make. Oh, maybe try saving a few dollars for the transportation back home.
UC Casino Foundation
The UC Casino Foundation is an organization that researches and realizes a fair platform that guarantees player security by using the Provably Fair concept.