The disease is spread by airborne droplet, and has a basic reproduction number, aka R-naught,(see wiki link) of approximately 3.8, placing it close to mumps/SARS (see chart, second example) in terms of transmission. It is estimated that only 5.1% cases have been confirmed or identified at present. The number of confirmed cases has tripled in the last three days. The disease originated in Wuhan, 8 miles from a Chinese biological lab specializing in bat corona virus study. Looking at the tracking maps below, Wuhan is also the geographical center of the infection. With a (current) low death rate and a long incubation rate (I have seen estimates from 2 weeks to 3 months), this will spread quickly.
(Image source - wiki commons)
While the bulk of those dying are over 40 years of age, it has been claimed that one victim was 31 years old. The National Health Commission of China has noted that:
Several people who’ve died from a new virus in China didn’t display symptoms of fever, potentially complicating global efforts to check for infected travelers as they arrive at airports and other travel hubs
I want to stress that mortality and r-naught numbers have been calculated for the CURRENT situation, and it appears that all the numbers that are used to calculate these are not all the data there is, only the data that has been confirmed as yet. In addition, China may be concealing data. Also keep in mind that good information collection is always hampered in chaotic and emergency situations.
China is quarantining at least 50 million people currently, and the roads in and out of Wuhan are being dug up.
19 CITIES UNDER FULL QUARANTINE:
Wuhan (11 Million) - 2020-01-23
Huanggang (7.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Jingzhou (5.7 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xiaogan (4.8 Million) - 2020-01-24
Ezhou (4.1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Yichang (4.1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Jingmen (3 Million) - 2020-01-24
Huangshi (2.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xianning (2.8 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xiantao (1.6 Million) - 2020-01-24
Daye (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Qianjiang (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Yangxin (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Enshi (0.9 Million) - 2020-01-24
Chibi (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Zhijiang (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Dangyang (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Tianmen (1.7 Million) - 2020-01-25
Lichuan (1 Million) - 2020-01-25
TOTAL: 55+ Million
And an update
Beijing is now being quarantined
Source - https://twitter.com/richardker/status/1221074001688027137?s=19
Epidemic theory (effective & basic reproduction numbers, epidemic thresholds) & techniques for analysis of infectious disease data (construction & use of epidemic curves, generation numbers, exceptional reporting & identification of significant clusters)
Tracking and News Resources
(image source - next link; time 1/25/19 11:25 AM)
The better of the two maps
4 chan /pol - various threads
Events like these are where 4chan shines; however, take everything sourced from there with a little suspicion
I don't like taking chances. I try to minimize all risks to 0%, or as close to it as possible. For example, I will not be ordering Chinese food in the near future.
Now that seems silly, doesn't it? But look at it this way...the Chinese places that I use are owned by Chinese families, and their delivery folk are Chinese. I can reasonably assume that the kitchen staff is Chinese as well. Any given person handling my food may have been in recent contact with a relative from the homeland, or someone who has been in contact with someone from the infected area. Remember that 2 week incubation time, and that r-naught of 4? So by removing a .0miniscule0 factor, I take one possibility of infection and lower it to zero.
Off the top of my head, I can tell you that there are cases of the novel coronavirus in Texas (my state), California, and Tennessee.
But what about those of you that aren't as paranoid as I am, here is what the CDC recommends:
- Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
- Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
- Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
- Stay home when you are sick.
- Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
- Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.
A Chinese spy was removed from a Canadian biolab this past July
Hoist on their own petard?
This comes from the chans, so keep that in mind...