Novel Corona Virus resources and prevention methods


Background Data

The disease is spread by airborne droplet, and has a basic reproduction number, aka R-naught,(see wiki link) of approximately 3.8, placing it close to mumps/SARS (see chart, second example) in terms of transmission. It is estimated that only 5.1% cases have been confirmed or identified at present. The number of confirmed cases has tripled in the last three days. The disease originated in Wuhan, 8 miles from a Chinese biological lab specializing in bat corona virus study. Looking at the tracking maps below, Wuhan is also the geographical center of the infection. With a (current) low death rate and a long incubation rate (I have seen estimates from 2 weeks to 3 months), this will spread quickly.


(Image source - wiki commons)

While the bulk of those dying are over 40 years of age, it has been claimed that one victim was 31 years old. The National Health Commission of China has noted that:

Several people who’ve died from a new virus in China didn’t display symptoms of fever, potentially complicating global efforts to check for infected travelers as they arrive at airports and other travel hubs
Source

I want to stress that mortality and r-naught numbers have been calculated for the CURRENT situation, and it appears that all the numbers that are used to calculate these are not all the data there is, only the data that has been confirmed as yet. In addition, China may be concealing data. Also keep in mind that good information collection is always hampered in chaotic and emergency situations.

China is quarantining at least 50 million people currently, and the roads in and out of Wuhan are being dug up.
19 CITIES UNDER FULL QUARANTINE:

Wuhan (11 Million) - 2020-01-23
Huanggang (7.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Jingzhou (5.7 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xiaogan (4.8 Million) - 2020-01-24
Ezhou (4.1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Yichang (4.1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Jingmen (3 Million) - 2020-01-24
Huangshi (2.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xianning (2.8 Million) - 2020-01-24
Xiantao (1.6 Million) - 2020-01-24
Daye (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Qianjiang (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Yangxin (1 Million) - 2020-01-24
Enshi (0.9 Million) - 2020-01-24
Chibi (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Zhijiang (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Dangyang (0.5 Million) - 2020-01-24
Tianmen (1.7 Million) - 2020-01-25
Lichuan (1 Million) - 2020-01-25
TOTAL: 55+ Million

And an update

Beijing is now being quarantined

Source - https://twitter.com/richardker/status/1221074001688027137?s=19

2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV), Wuhan, China CDC SUMMARY

How the new coronavirus stacks up against SARS and MERS

Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

Basic reproduction number Wiki

Epidemic theory (effective & basic reproduction numbers, epidemic thresholds) & techniques for analysis of infectious disease data (construction & use of epidemic curves, generation numbers, exceptional reporting & identification of significant clusters)

Tracking and News Resources

delete.png
(image source - next link; time 1/25/19 11:25 AM)

Tracking map
The better of the two maps

Tracking map #2

@CoronaVirusInfo Twitter

4 chan /pol - various threads
Events like these are where 4chan shines; however, take everything sourced from there with a little suspicion

Prevention

I don't like taking chances. I try to minimize all risks to 0%, or as close to it as possible. For example, I will not be ordering Chinese food in the near future.

Now that seems silly, doesn't it? But look at it this way...the Chinese places that I use are owned by Chinese families, and their delivery folk are Chinese. I can reasonably assume that the kitchen staff is Chinese as well. Any given person handling my food may have been in recent contact with a relative from the homeland, or someone who has been in contact with someone from the infected area. Remember that 2 week incubation time, and that r-naught of 4? So by removing a .0miniscule0 factor, I take one possibility of infection and lower it to zero.

Off the top of my head, I can tell you that there are cases of the novel coronavirus in Texas (my state), California, and Tennessee.

But what about those of you that aren't as paranoid as I am, here is what the CDC recommends:

  • Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose, and mouth with unwashed hands.
  • Avoid close contact with people who are sick.
  • Stay home when you are sick.
  • Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash.
  • Clean and disinfect frequently touched objects and surfaces.

Other considerations

A Chinese spy was removed from a Canadian biolab this past July

https://twitter.com/Jkylebass/status/1221065421874397185?s=19

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/chinese-researcher-escorted-from-infectious-disease-lab-amid-rcmp-investigation-1.5211567

Hoist on their own petard?
This comes from the chans, so keep that in mind...

http://archive.4plebs.org/pol/thread/229616803/
https://rense.com/general85/China'sPlanToConquer.htm
http://archive.is/acr9H


Comments 29


Odd isn't that Bill Gates is one of the patent holders of the vaccine... amost as though this was planned!

25.01.2020 18:17
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It would not at all surprise me! The super-rich will do anything to make more money, because unfortunately money is much more important to them than are people's lives.

25.01.2020 19:11
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Very Interesting, indeed!

25.01.2020 21:39
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I saw up to 65 million dead

26.01.2020 07:52
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I had seen a different article with the 30 million figure, and that's what had stuck in my head.

26.01.2020 20:06
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I guess in retrospect the only one I saw was the 65 mill.

27.01.2020 17:01
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the numbers either way are stunning

27.01.2020 17:49
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If so he holds patents to the older virus versions like SARS and Mers, this one is a whole new virus derivative.

26.01.2020 08:36
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I'm taking extra vitamins C, D, and E, to fight against the Corona Eye Virus.

25.01.2020 19:14
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sounds like a good precaution, also make sure to drink lots of water!

25.01.2020 21:05
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Yes, especially filtered water.

26.01.2020 09:25
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What? No Chinese food??? But it tastes so good with a beer. Corona Beer. !BEER

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25.01.2020 22:14
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mmm hm. short ribs and tsing-dao! lo mein FTW!

thanks for the beer!

25.01.2020 22:36
0

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25.01.2020 22:14
0

Perhaps the most rational and informative post I've yet seen on the potential pandemic.

Thanks!

26.01.2020 00:55
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If it becomes more than a potential are you going to get a vaccine shot if they come up with one for this particular virus?

26.01.2020 08:34
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That's a great question, and the answer isn't obvious. I will certainly not without a lot of specific information regarding the content of the shot. I may not if I am not confident that others have been substantively benefited by it. There are other options I keep open as well, such as dying gracefully, or returning to being a hermit innawoods, where transmission would be very difficult.

Dunno yet. I'll think on it. I hope you do not think that my skepticism regarding institutional medicine is simply denialism of any possible benefit that might stem from that vector. That is not, and never has been, my position. I don't blindly trust, and viscerally distrust black boxes, particularly when folks I find untrustworthy try to force me to trust in them.

I want to understand the evidence, and the vaccine industry does a damn poor job of providing relevant evidence forthrightly, all too often inflicting ad hominem, pejorative rhetoric accusing skeptics of denialism.

That is evidence itself, and just as it does the AGW alarmism propaganda, strongly indicts the mandatory vaccine propaganda.

Thanks!

27.01.2020 04:01
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Yeah, that's about my line of thinking. If they don't get this thing sequenced out they may not come up with a vaccine in time to save hundreds to thousands of people. It starts spreading here and I'll be stocking up real quick like to hide out inside my house. On Friday it was four hundred people stricken in China, this morning I posted an update it's almost to three thousand and 24 more people have died over the weekend with Chinese authorities stating their dismay at this virus's ability to spread so rapidly. I am just glad you will be weighing your options or heading for the woods if it was to come to that.

27.01.2020 14:46
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Imma die sooner than later. I might as well die suffering in beautiful surroundings.

29.01.2020 06:00
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there are too many unknowns, combined with the known deceit and IW capability of the CCP, for a rational discussion of the issue.

my family remains bound and determined to continue with a normal social life right now, and I can't convince them that a couple of weeks of internet interaction may be less harmful than a household of relatives coughing out their lifeblood.

26.01.2020 20:11
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There is a strong bias towards normalcy, and it is a human trait. I can't speak for or to your family, but I trust you to do your best by them.

The data you provided is that most relevant that I can find presently, and that is what I want, far more than useless assurances or prophecies of doom.

Thanks!

27.01.2020 04:05
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we can probably set the number two cause of human misery (after h. machievellius, of course) as normalcy bias...

27.01.2020 17:53
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Thank for a great set of resources.

Have you seen this video on YouTube that has just come out of China...

26.01.2020 02:01
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good addition to the post!

Thank you!

26.01.2020 20:08
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Just getting ready to go to work, going to be in a room with at least five hundred mainland chinese, wish me luck! Going to take Cat's Claw and Echinacea as a prophylactic.

26.01.2020 02:55
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good luck!

bleach the hell out of your hands before you go home; dont eat in the presence of these folk, think about a cold mask (say YOU have a cold), and be careful!

26.01.2020 20:07
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