North American Working Group Outlook


North Korea asked the US to come up with a new calculation of the North Korean nuclear issue. The US dismissed the hard-line Bolton and announced his Libyan solution was wrong. The possibility of a North American talk is mentioned. There were also reports that it was not with the report that the working talks were held in Pyongyang. No smoke at the chimney. It seems certain that something is happening between North America.

There is a lot of talk about what will happen in the future as the possibility of the North American talks is mentioned. Perhaps President Moon Jae-in went to the UN to talk about Trump and the North American talks. When it was reported that President Moon Jae-in was going to the UN, he predicted that there would be little progress or progress on the North Korean nuclear issue. There have been two major events since that time. The first was Bolton's dismissal, and the second was a Ukrainian scandal in the United States.

Bolton's dismissal may be disgraceful to me, but fortunately for the whole of North and South America. The talks between North America and North Korea are likely to be much more positive than before. Of course, US policy can't change drastically if one security adviser is changed.

Meanwhile, the recently reported Ukrainian scandal may have various effects on the North American negotiations. The US Democratic Party has entered impeachment proceedings against Trump for the Ukrainian scandal. In the past, Russian scandals went beyond. But the Ukrainian scandal will not be easy. A telephone transcript was released that required Trump to conduct an investigation into the Democratic presidential candidate Biden and his son.

This is a serious problem in the United States. It's hard to keep Trump in the Republicans. Eventually, the Ukrainian scandal may make it difficult for Trump to be re-elected in the next presidential election. Breaking the tradition so far, the US Republican may vote for another person instead of Trump.

Trump is in trouble. To get out of this situation requires something breakthrough. Even if there is a problem, you may think that if you have a breakthrough achievement or event, you can cover it. The first thing that can be heard is the war with Iran. The atmosphere and conditions for war with Iran are already being created. But it will not be easy to wage war when Trump's leadership and authority are at stake. Republicans can follow. But Democrats will never admit it. Without bipartisan support, war is difficult.

The second thing Trump can achieve is the North Korean nuclear issue. But there are two problems. One is to oppose Democrats to take steps to lift UN sanctions, and the second is to try not to make important decisions with Trump, which North Korea may come down from tomorrow.

Even if Trump takes a gesture such as firing Bolton, the outcome of the North American talks is not so great. Of course, if North Korea tries to use the United States in a hurry, a slightly different prospect is possible. North Korea will be able to negotiate if it seeks other options, such as lifting the UN sanctions, which require the support of the Democratic Party.

The representative one is the end of war. Instead of giving up the Yongbyon nuclear facility, it would accept a limited economic exchange between the two Koreas with the declaration of war. The end of war has been discussed since President Bush. If you think the end of the declaration is simply a declaration, it is a miscalculation. After the declaration, the Korean peninsula is no longer in a blackout.

The various systems operating in the power outage must be changed. The most representative of these will be the UNC and the Neutral Nations Oversight Committee. First of all, the mission of UNC will be changed. In other words, the task of managing the MDL and DMZ should be released. At the same time, the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission should be disbanded. Measures should be taken to manage the military border between South Korea and North Korea. The ROK military should take over the cease-fire mission of UNC, and perform such tasks as defending the borderline in the war. In addition, organizations such as PKOs should be dispatched directly from the United Nations to prevent military conflicts between the two Koreas, playing a role similar to that of the Neutral Nations Oversight Committee.

The United States is likely to pay for a complete suspension of US-ROK training. But it is unlikely that North Korea will be satisfied with that.

At the same time, we can expect a declaration that economic cooperation between the two Koreas is an inter-ethnic transaction and not subject to UN sanctions. Perhaps that's enough, the Democrats are unlikely to disagree. North Korea, too, may think that reelection is the biggest outcome of pushing Trump.

I think the above is the maximum that North Korea thinks it can get at the North American talks. North Korea may well know that there is nothing Trump can do for them in the current situation.

With Trump's leadership at stake, it will not be easy for proper foreign negotiations to proceed. However, no matter how difficult diplomacy is, there is an attribute to achieve something in the middle, and if you look at it, you can expect it.

How to negotiate in the present situation depends entirely on North Korean hands. North Korea would do it or it could not. Recently, North Korea has repeatedly told the US not to interfere with inter-Korean relations. Perhaps the biggest issue of this negotiation is inter-Korean relations.

The United States and Korea are all in a similar situation. The US is in trouble with Trump's leadership and South Korea is in danger of being close to the president. North Korea will never miss this gap. In some ways, the current situation may be the opportunity for North Korea to achieve the most obvious results. This is because the United States, South Korea, and the United States have never hoped for such successful talks with North Korea.


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26.09.2019 16:01
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