My good streak continues and week 9 was one of those where I both made some really good analysis in my preview, but also some that weren't exactly on the money. Having more good bets while being able the hedge out of some of the bad ones made for some solid profit on the week.
I'm also extremely comfortable in my handicapping and betting right now at current stakes. Probably a bit too comfortable to really push it forward. I kind of avoid making big calls and tend to stick to multiple smaller bets. I'm also up over 7 units on the season so far (10 units in a season is the point I where the time is pretty worth it from an earnings point of view) and I have somewhat of a pillow to fall on in case things would start to go bad.
Moving forward I want to start increasing my stakes a bit systematically. Last week, the average stake size was only 0.266 units and I want to get this up to around 0.333 units at least over the next couple of months.
11 Pre-Game bets I got in were highlighted in bold in my Saturday & Sunday Preview Posts which ended up really performing very well. I do expect there to be a regression to the mean on these ones at some point though.
https://cdn.steemitimages.com/DQmdUgXMfoVjPp1LAyzkiJ48kf1WznKHM1Dfy7Tgi6bKuzh/sbc.jpgI again had no bigger official Pre-Game or Live bets on either Copytip and the SBC Discord Channel which mostly comes down to the comfort part I wrote about above. If anything comes along where I have enough valid reasons to make it into a big bet and the odds and limits actually allow me to also take if up as an official bet, I for sure will but I'm not forcing anything.
Copytip /Discord Bets Season 2020-2021
03/10/2020 OHL vs Zulte 1H U 1.25 @ 1.989 HT 1-0 HALF WON
30/08/2020 Club Brugge -0.25 @ 1.846 (20' 0-0) FT 2-1 WON
22/08/2020 Zulte-Waregem Team Total over 2 @ 1.924 (37' 1-0) FT 4-1 WON
Where to set the pink expected profit line is not an exact science and is mostly based on actual results from a similar betting sample that includes thousands of bets. Right now I have it set at +3.2%. This roughly equals the average of the last 3 seasons putting more weight on the most recent season. Increasing my stakes a bit should result in the steepness of the pink line to chance a bit. Of course, this will also increase the swings of the blue actual profit line. Regardless, things are going great right now and I just love it to be up in the healthy green zone. The danger this brings along (which happened a lot in the past) that it all starts feeling too easy resulting in less work being put in and a correction to the downside. Having a blog and a very structured way to go about my handicapping helps wonders for this.
Previous Personal Results 2020-2021
Week 09 Results 35 Bets | 17W-12L-06P | Staked 09.292u | +1.654u Profit..
Week 08 Results 58 Bets | 29W-24L-05P | Staked 15.844u | +5.014u Profit..
Week 07 Results 62 Bets | 36W-21L-05P | Staked 15.666u | +3.696u Profit..
Week 06 Results 43 Bets | 11W-28L-05P | Staked 12.086u | -3.610u Loss..
Week 05 Results 41 Bets | 23W-14L-04P | Staked 09.880u | +2.590u Profit..
Week 04 Results 39 Bets | 16W-18L-05P | Staked 12.258u | -0.604u Loss..
Week 03 Results 44 Bets | 19W-17L-08P | Staked 11.580u | +2.748u Profit
Week 02 Results 21 Bets | 08W-12L-01P | Staked 05.972u | -1.096u Loss..
Week 01 Results 15 Bets | 04W-10L-01P | Staked 05.618u | -2.724u Loss..
Regular Season 2020-2021 Results 357 Bets | 162W-156L-40P | 98.196 Staked | +7.664u Profit | +7.80% ROI